ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has raised its 2030 Bitcoin price prediction to $2.4 million per BTC. This is a significant increase from the previous prediction of $1.5 million. The updated forecast, announced on April 24, 2025, by ARK analyst David Puell, highlights the firm’s growing optimism about Bitcoin’s potential as a global digital asset.
Revised Price Scenarios
ARK revised its “bull case” price target for Bitcoin, but also updated its “base” and “bear” case projections:
- Bear case: Raised from $300,000 to $500,000
- Base case: Increased from $710,000 to $1.2 million
Key Factors Behind the Revised Price Targets
ARK’s updated forecast is based on a detailed model that includes:
- Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM)
- Market penetration estimates for various Bitcoin use cases
- A refined analysis of Bitcoin’s liquid supply, excluding lost and dormant coins
Institutional Investment as Key Driver
According to Puell, the primary driver of the bullish scenario is institutional investment. In this scenario, Bitcoin captures 6.5% of the $200 trillion global financial market, excluding gold.
Other significant contributors to the $2.4 million price target include:
- Bitcoin as Digital Gold: ARK believes Bitcoin could capture 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap by 2030. This narrative is central to the bear and base cases as well.
- Bitcoin as a Safe Haven: Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value in inflationary and politically unstable regions contributes 13.5% to the bull case.
- Nation-State and Corporate Adoption: The adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset by countries and corporations further strengthens its position.
72% CAGR to Reach $2.4 Million
For Bitcoin to hit $2.4 million, it needs to grow at a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from the end of 2024 through 2030. Under this scenario, Bitcoin’s market cap would reach $49.2 trillion, surpassing the combined GDP of the U.S. and China, and more than double gold’s current market cap.
This growth projection is based on ARK’s experimental model, which accounts for supply scarcity by excluding long-dormant coins. Puell notes that many valuation models fail to consider this factor.
Challenges to Reaching $2.4 Million
While ARK’s model is data-driven, achieving a $2.4 million Bitcoin price faces several hurdles:
- Bitcoin must sustain exceptionally high annual returns despite being a trillion-dollar asset.
- Global regulatory frameworks must support widespread institutional and sovereign adoption.
- Macroeconomic conditions must remain favorable for alternative store-of-value assets like Bitcoin.
Recent developments, such as Bitcoin’s recovery from a 2025 low of $75,160 to the $94,000 range, and the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the U.S. government, provide some optimism for these targets.
Conclusion: Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset
ARK’s forecast isn’t just a price prediction but a thesis on Bitcoin’s potential as a foundational global financial asset. If institutional demand rises, regulatory clarity improves, and adoption increases, the path to seven-figure Bitcoin prices may become more plausible. As David Puell concludes, Bitcoin’s scarcity and lost supply are still undervalued, and once markets adjust for this, Bitcoin’s upside potential could exceed even the most optimistic expectations.
